Articles

Extended Range Forecast Experiments of the Low Frequency Circulation for the Period of the Heavy Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in Mid-July 2011

  • YANG Qiuming
Expand
  • Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210008, China

Received date: 2011-09-19

  Revised date: 2011-11-05

  Online published: 2011-11-18

Abstract

Based on the low-frequency meridional wind of 850 hPa over East Asia for May-July in 2011 on the time scale of the 20-30 days, a series of the principal oscillation pattern (POP) models are built, and independent forecast experiments of POP models are carried out for the propagation of the low-frequency zone associated with the heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley in Mid-July 2011 for the extended range of the 10-30 days. The results show that the skill score of the correlation prediction up to 20 days ahead of time can reach more than 0.50 in the 60 forecasts, and the variations of the low frequency meridional wind of the key region are well predicted in connection with a disastrous rain on July 18, 2011 over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.

Cite this article

YANG Qiuming . Extended Range Forecast Experiments of the Low Frequency Circulation for the Period of the Heavy Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in Mid-July 2011[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2011 , 29(32) : 61 -66 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010

Outlines

/