Currently, conventional reservoir engineering methods for dynamic analysis and low permeable reservoir performance forecast are often inaccurate, especially they are not suitable for oil well productivity forecast. Aiming at this problem, taking threshold pressure gradient, reservoir stress-sensitivity, micro-compressibility of Newton fluid, and pressure dependent viscosity into consideration, a nonlinear radial stable flow model for low permeable reservoir has been built by using the complex function theory; an analytical solution method is adopted for the solution. Combining with the concrete parameters collected from the certain well area in Changqing low permeable oilfield, all parameters' sensitivity on production performance in the productivity equation have been analyzed and the deliverability curves with different parameters have also been drawn. At last, the superiority, adaptability, and feasibility for evaluating productivity and forecasting oil productivity of the model are also discussed in comparison with a linear flow model. As a result, low permeable reservoir should be developed with a short pattern system due to its low permeability and low pressure transmitting speed. When formation pressure drops rapidly, advanced water injection should be adopted to remain formation pressure.