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  • Exclusive: Technology Assessment
    WU Yu, LI Muzhi, LI Yantong
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(19): 12-18.
    There is a long history of evaluation indicator system and research about input-output of national science and technology activities, some representational research results with important influence have been achieved. In this paper, the main international scientific and technological indicators are analyzed, the characteristics are summarized and the deficiencies are discussed. Based on the existing scientific and technological indicator research framework of our country, some suggestions focusing on indicator system design, data analysis and international cooperation are proposed according to the strategic target of being in the forefront of innovative countries and building a powerful country in science and technology.
  • Exclusive: Technology Assessment
    ZHANG Shouming, ZHANG Bin, ZHANG Bifeng, LIU Yi
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(19): 19-25.
    Disruptive technologies applied to military have changed the form of wars and determined who will win, while to the national economy they have changed the way of lives and decided the future of the world. This paper reviews the development and characteristics of disruptive technologies, and points out that the biggest challenge facing disruptive technology development is to identify the right one. Anther difficulty is that technological breakthroughs usually need long-term accumulation and systematic promotion. By summarizing the foresight methods of disruptive technologies, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to develop disruptive technologies, such as strengthening technology foresight, original innovation, cultivation and management.
  • Exclusive: Technology Assessment
    LI Lin, LIAO Jinping, ZHANG Xuangong
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(19): 26-32.
    Starting from the essential connotation of technology security early warning, we argue that science and technology security early warning' mechanism is real need to ensure technology industry safety, to improve science and technology output efficiency, and to stimulate scientific and technological innovation ability. Establishing science and technology security's mechanism should follow the principle of purposive, systematicand scientific. Then, we explore the methods and approaches to establish the early-warning mechanism of science and technology security from five aspects, including target determination, information collection, analysis and identification, evaluation and feedback, and performance evaluation. Finally, we present countermeasures and suggestions for establishment of science and technology security's mechanism in terms of organizational mechanism, operation mechanism and police-regulation.
  • Exclusive: Technology Assessment
    LIU Zhipeng, DAI Tao, MENG Xiangcui, LI Yijie
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(19): 33-40.
    Core technologies subject to foreign countries have become the top priority of China's economic security. The issue of techno-economic security needs urgent attention. This study draws on the concepts of "sensitivity" and "vulnerability" from interdependence theory, and proposes four categories of attributes and corresponding indicators of technological sensitivity, economic sensitivity, technological vulnerability and economic vulnerability for China's industrial sectors based on the perspective of techno-economic security. Factors of sensitivity and vulnerability are extracted using the factor analysis method and 38 industrial sectors are divided into four categories:High sensitivity and high vulnerability, high sensitivity and low vulnerability, low sensitivity and high vulnerability, low sensitivity and low vulnerability. This classification can provide a basis for conducting classified monitoring and evaluation of the techno-economic security status of various industries as well as for better safeguarding national economic security.
  • Exclusive: Technology Assessment
    MENG Xiangcui, DAI Tao, LIU Zhipeng, LI Yijie
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(19): 41-49.
    Disruptive technologies of a country, especially its competitiveness level compared to other countries, will affect the country's future competitiveness and economic security. In this study, we present the competitiveness evaluation model and method for disruptive technology from three aspects, i.e., "technology-market-environment" using the strategic niche management (SNM) theory and the characteristics of disruptive technology. Furthermore, we take the artificial intelligence (AI) technology as an example, and analyze each country's competitiveness of China, United States, France, Germany, Britain and Japan.
  • Exclusive: Technology Assessment
    XU Fang, LI Bi, CUI Shengxian, ZHOU Changhai, LI Xiaoxuan
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(19): 50-57.
    Today's orientation of science and technology evaluation in China has changed to pursuing excellence and encouraging science and technology to promote development. One of the policies is to encourage international peer review in science and technology evaluation. However the theoretical and methodological research on international peer review is still in its infancy. Therefore, this paper firstly proposes a few key questions about international peer review, and then studies a case of research evaluation of CAS Centers for Excellence to answer these questions. Further, this paper puts forward some thoughts and prospects for China's future international evaluation.