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  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    AI Wanxiu, XIAO Chan, ZENG Hongling, WANG Ling, XIAO Fengjin
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 12-18. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.002
    Based on the meteorological data in China in the last 50 years (including the complete data for Xiong'an New Area since 1974), this paper studies and analyzes the climate change and the climate ecological characteristics in China, especially, in Xiong'an in recent decades. Xiong'an is in the zone of the warm temperate semi-humid monsoon climate, with a climate background similar to that of Beijing and Tianjin. In recent decades, temperature, precipitation and other meteorological elements take an obvious change trend but with a weak amplitude, the annual average temperature is increased by 0.2℃ per decade, and the number of hot days is increased by 0.8 days per decade, the number of heavy rain days shows a trend of decrease, the change ranges of elements are all lower than those in China as a whole and in the surrounding cities, as the results of the effects of climate change on Xiong'an. The number of extreme weather events is also increased, such as the heavy rainfall return period is shortened, the number of extreme strong rainfalls is increased obviously and so on. This is as shown in the IPCC's report, and the trend in most regions in China. Based on the analysis of the disaster historical data and the climate model prediction, it is pointed out that under the background of the global warming, Xiong'an will face increasing meteorological disasters and climate risks caused by the climate change in its development, and some suggestions are made.
  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    YANG Mingzhu, ZHU Xiaying, AI Wanxiu, SONG Wenling
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 19-29. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.003
    The evolution characteristics of the spring sand-dust weather frequency (SDWF) in northern China and its associated atmospheric circulations are analyzed. The signals for the prediction of the SDWF are explored by using the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration in the previous autumn as the external forcing factors. Besides, the influence of the rainfall over the dust-storm source regions in the previous summer is also studied. A multi-factor prediction model for the SDWF in northern China is established and applied in the operational forecasting in the National Climate Center of China. The results show that this model performs best for North China and fairly well for Northwest China by involving the precipitation in the previous autumn.
  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    YANG Jing, LIU Yanxiang, GAO Jingjing, LI Wanyu, HAO Shuhui, LI Aixun, PAN Jinjun
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 30-39. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.004
    With the definition of the freezing process under the influence of the road traffic, an early warning model is built based on the gray correlation method for monitoring the hazard from the freezing processes in the road traffic in the south area. For each process, the four indexes, including the average daily precipitation and air temperature, the overall rainy days and frozen days, contain the metric to quantify its hazard degree. With the analysis of the meteorological factors and the road-blocking disaster of the freezing process in south China during January 21-25, 2016, it is concluded that the extremely high risk area (Grade 5) and the road block area have a very good coincidence relationship, and as the level of the hazard degree rises, the ratio of the hit road block rises accordingly. The relationship is applicable for the state highways, the national highways and the provincial highways, while the peak value of the ratio is at the high hazard degree for the state highways but it is at a lower hazard degree for the provincial highways. These characteristics show that the early warning model proposed in this paper not only gives a good indication, but also discriminates the roads of different grades, to provide a sound reference for the traffic risk control.
  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    HU Xue, MA Guang, LI Chunqiang, CHE Shaojing, KANG Xiyan, LIU Xingyan
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 40-48. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.005
    Drought hazards have a great adverse effect on the agricultural production in Zhangjiakou. Based on the meteorological data of 14 weather stations from 1965 to 2018, the temporal-spatial characteristics of the seasonal drought variations in Zhangjiakou region are analyzed by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the statistic methods. It is shown that the summer drought sees a significant increasing trend, with a long time duration and in a large space, especially after the 1990s. But the spring and autumn drought sees a decreasing trend, and becomes weak in the 21st century. And the winter drought sees no significant variation. It is imperative to strengthen the management for the summer drought.
  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    FENG Lei, ZHANG Kaiyi, GAO Jingjing, DAI Zhixiu
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 49-64. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.006
    The applicability of the land surface temperature retrieval products in the road surface temperature monitored for typical highway sections is studied by using the FY-2G and Himawari-8 products. It is suggested that the satellite land surface temperature retrieval products can reflect the diurnal cycle and the daily change of the road surface temperature well, with a good relationship between the two. According to the high correlation between the road surface temperature and the satellite retrieval product, a revised model is established by using the linear regression method. The rolling revised satellite land surface temperature retrieval products give results much closer to the road surface temperature observations than the original results. The absolute deviation in summer is reduced to 2.57℃ from 6.98℃, and the absolute deviation in winter is reduced to 1.62℃ from 3.84℃.
  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    LIANG Li, YANG Xiaodan, WANG Chengxin, YUAN Yuan, ZHANG Yingnan, ZHANG Yujie
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 65-75. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.007
    Based on the observations of the national principal stations, the basic stations and the ordinary stations from 2005 to 2014 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, a forest fire danger weather index model is built with the modified Brown-Davis method and the forest fire danger weather grade is established. They are verified by the corresponding daily frequency statistics of the forest and shrub fires, provided by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA), combined with the case study and it is shown that the modified forest fire danger weather index is indicative for its values of five regions are higher in spring and autumn, as is consistent with the major fire prevention season set by the NFGA. In the three key forest fire-prevention regions of the meteorological service, namely, the northeast, the south and the southwest forest regions, the modified forest fire weather index has a high correlation with the forest fire frequency. The applied analysis of the forest fire in Inner Mongolia province in 2017 shows a high applicability of the index model.
  • Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
    HAN Yanhong, MIAO Lei, ZHAO Luqiang, YANG Xiaodan, WU Hao
    Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37(20): 76-83. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.008
    Absorbing the advanced experience of forest fire warning and control in the world, establishing the fire risk rating system based on combustion mechanism can further improve the comprehensive ability of forest fire prevention and control in China and reduce the loss of forest resources. Based on National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the paper introduces the development history, technical method and system structure, argues that NFDRS is a physical model based on combustion mechanism and experiments, considers the contribution of different fuels to fire, calculates and provides comprehensive indexes to facilitate the planning of fire control activities. The structure and method of NFDRS are applicable to China with complex climate and diverse vegetation types. Therefore, the paper discusses the key technologies in the system, such as the calculation of moisture content of combustible and the calculation of fire protection index. By considering the current situation of forest fire prevention in China, the paper proposes the introduction of NFDRS into forest fire management and fire control strategy in China in order to provide references for establishing national fire danger system in China.