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  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    WANG Rong, CHEN Zhiye, ZENG Jiawei, WANG Yijing, CAO Junji, TANG Xu, ZHANG Renhe
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 10-19. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00232
    Abstract (401) PDF (156)   Knowledge map   Save
    China has promised to achieve the "dual-carbon" goal in order to reduce climate warming caused by human-induced CO2 emissions, accelerate the transition of the electricity system toward renewable energy, and provide impetus to green development. Starting from summarizing the trend of recent studies, this paper encompasses the demand for energy transitions to meet the "dual-carbon" goal, analyzes the environmental problems in the processes of energy transition, and identifies the potential impacts of the production and operation of renewable energy on the environment and ecology. To cope with the challenge of achieving the "dual-carbon" goal, the trends of growth in power generation and energy consumption from 2021 to 2060 are predicted by analyzing the historical growth of renewable energy from 2010 to 2021. In addition, this paper analyzes the demand for land, power transmission, energy storage, and investment for the development of photovoltaic and wind power in China by taking into account the state-of-the-art estimate of photovoltaic and wind power generation. Based on the analysis, it is extrapolated that the renewable growth rate of clean energy in China is insufficient to satisfy the pledges aligning with the "dualcarbon" goal, therefore it is required to overcome the inertia in the energy and economic systems to strengthen the process of energy transition and increase the share of renewable energy in total energy supply. Lastly, a number of suggestions for policy are provided for accelerating the energy transitions to achieve the goal at a low economic cost.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    CHENG Fangyuan, ZUO Zhiyan, QIAO Liang, ZHANG Kaiwen, CHANG Meiyu
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 20-33. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00239
    Abstract (111) PDF (56)   Knowledge map   Save
    To mitigate the negative impacts of global warming, international community has issued policies to accomplish carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality by 2030s and mid-21st century, respectively. Using projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study compares differences of future climate change risks between under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and under higher scenarios based on the signal-to-noise (SNR) method. By the level of climate change risks, the respective climate conditions can be sorted as "unusual" (SNR≥1), "unfamiliar" (SNR≥2) and "unknown" (SNR≥ 3). Under the low emission scenario, in the near-term future most regions of the earth will face "unusual" climate conditions, nearly simultaneously comparable with higher scenarios due to minor differences in CO2 emissions between different scenarios, except in some regions where reductions of aerosol emissions will dominate on the local surface air temperature (SAT) change. However, in the mid-term and long-term future, for the fast decrease in CO2 emission under carbon emission peaking and neutrality goals, almost all the globe will be exposed to an "unfamiliar" or "unusual" climate condition several decades later even beyond 2100 than under higher scenarios. In addition, mitigation will make the percentage of surface area exposed to higher climate change risks 30~60% lower than those under higher emission scenarios. Therefore, decision-makers should attach more importance to the climate penalty induced by decreased aerosols and take regional characteristics of climate change into consideration for developing more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    ZENG Jiawei, CHEN Zhiye, WANG Yijing, WANG Rong
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 34-46. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00233
    Abstract (185) PDF (107)   Knowledge map   Save
    This paper predicts the spatiotemporal distribution of photovoltaic (PV) power generation during 2021—2060 under the target of carbon neutrality based on a high-resolution comprehensive digital geographic information. This paper analyses the impacts of temperature, shading and panel inclination on PV power generation, investigates the spatial pattern of PV industry by performing an autocorrelation analysis, and evaluates the integrated benefits of PV power. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) The maximal annual PV power generation in China is projected to reach 9 PW·h·a-1 by 2060, where Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have the highest potential for PV power generation and are expected to be the most important regions for PV generation in China. 2) The spacing, inclination, shading and temperature of panels have significant impacts on the efficiency of PV power generation. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the actual geological and meteorological factors when making plans of building PV power plants. Improving the performance of PV power generation requires to optimize the layout of PV panels, perform sufficient cleaning, and conduct maintenance work regularly. 3) The spatial correlation in distribution of PV power generation is significant at province level from 2021 to 2060. Northwest China will be the hot-spot area of PV power generation with a potential effect of agglomeration, which could improve the efficiency and competitiveness of PV enterprises, enhance the innovation ability, and drive the coordinated economic growth. 4) Deploying PV power in China can save coal consumption by 1200 Mt·a-1, which is expected to effectively reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matters, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides by 7076, 0.18, 0.66 and 0.95 Mt·a-1,respectively in 2060. The highest environmental benefits of PV power generation are identified in Northwest China and Inner Mongolia. As a conclusion, accelerating the deployment of PV power and securing construction of electricity transmission and energy storage facilities will speed up China's carbon emissions reduction to achieve the carbon neutrality goal as early as possible. These results provide a scientific basis for the development strategies of PV power in China.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    CHEN Zhiye, ZENG Jiawei, WANG Yijing, WANG Rong
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 47-58. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00234
    Abstract (129) PDF (84)   Knowledge map   Save
    This study employs high-resolution comprehensive digital geographic information to analyze the spatiotemporal differences of wind power resources and predict the impacts of electricity transmission and energy storage on the capacity of carbon emissions abatement by deploying wind power in China. The findings of this study include: 1) High capacities of wind power are identified over North China and Southwest China. The efficiency of wind power generation can be largely enhanced by improving the spatial layout of power installation and securing the development of electricity transmission and energy storage facilities. 2) The potential of wind power generation in China is predicted based on spatial and temporal distributions of wind power resources and hourly wind power generation loads at a spatial resolution of 1/120°×1/30°. with consideration of infrastructure construction such as electricity transportation and energy storage. The national wind power generation potential varies significantly between scenarios with different assumptions on land use. The projected capacity of wind power generation may reach 50 PW·h per year by assuming that all land pixels can be used for power generation, whereas it will decrease to 4 PW·h per year if filtering pixels suitable for wind power generation and optimizing the size of power plants under cost minimization. Provinces in the west of China are predicted to the hotspot areas of wind power generation while the potential of wind power generation is relatively lower. The efficiency of power generation will be largely reduced in the absence of electricity transportation and energy storage. Future studies should focus on improving planning and layout of wind power plants by coordinating the supporting facilities of electricity transportation and energy storage, which can increase the economic benefits when achieving the emission abatement targets. 3) Deploying wind power will significantly reduce carbon emissions in China. When the facilities of electricity transmission and energy storage are fully coordinated, the capacity of carbon emissions abatement by deploying wind power will be increased by 26%, accompanied with an 84% reduction in the average abatement costs. This paper provides a scientific foundation for deploying wind power at large scales in China. By 2060, a large amount of infrastructure for electricity transmission and energy storage will be needed to achieve energy balance under carbon neutrality in China, and then North China and Northwest China will be the primary areas of wind power generation.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    WANG Yichen, DONG Lu, ZHANG Linru, XIE Meiying, HAN Xiao, CAO Junji
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 59-65. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00237
    Abstract (116) PDF (66)   Knowledge map   Save
    This paper firstly clarifies that development of new renewable energy under "dual carbon" goal will benefit urban areas in PM2.5and O3 pollution, and then summarizes such improvements in air quality in terms of the energy transitions in electric power, heating, steel and cement, transportation and other industries. In addition, limitations of the current research are also addressed. Future research should focus on the governance of new pollutants, the perspective of individual selection and the two-sided characteristics of policies, so as to promote continuous improvement of air quality in China and help the "dual carbon" goal continue to advance in depth.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    ZHANG Yan, QIAN Haoqi, LI Quan
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 66-72. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00238
    Abstract (173) PDF (74)   Knowledge map   Save
    It is of great significance to look into the future of the green transformation of shipping industry under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, also known as the "dual-carbon" goals. This study introduces the strategic objective of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for reducing greenhouse gases in the shipping industry, analyzes the cargo throughput and energy consumption of shipping industry in China and other Western Pacific ports, and examines the emissions of CO2 and air pollutants such as SO2 and NOx from ships within the 12 nm territorial waters of China. It is found that shipping volumes in China and the Western Pacific region were steadily increasing, with a growth rate of China's shipping energy consumption reaching 5.8% in 2021. From 2018 to 2020, the ship emission of SO2 decreased significantly with the implementation of China's Ship Emission Control Area Policy and IMO's Global Low Sulfur Fuel Policy, while NOx and CO2 emissions continued to increase with the growth of ship activities. Therefore, green transformation of China's shipping industry is significant for coordinated reduction of NO x and CO2. Based on the current status of China's ship emissions and the background of the construction of international green shipping corridor, this paper concludes with an outlook on the future path of shipping industry's green transformation in China, hoping to provide a reference for strategies formulation for the green transformation of shipping industry in the context of the "dual-carbon" goals.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    CAI Ziyi, YOU Qinglong, WU Fangying, JIANG Zhihong, ZHAI Panmao
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 73-84. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00236
    Abstract (135) PDF (111)   Knowledge map   Save
    This study utilizes the data from 26 CMIP6 models to explore the timeline for global carbon neutrality under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, focusing on the peak CO2 concentration time. It assesses changes in China's climate and extreme climate during the carbon neutrality period, using 1995—2014 as a reference. Meanwhile, these findings are contrasted with the outcomes from scenarios where carbon neutrality was not achieved. The results indicate that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, global carbon neutrality will be achieved around 2062 (close to China's carbon neutrality target time). The regional average temperature in China during the SSP1-2.6 carbon neutrality period is expected to increase by (1.61±0.46)℃, with a precipitation increase of (9.15±5.46)%. The most significant change areas will be located in northwestern China, with temperature and precipitation increases reaching (1.84±0.50)℃ and (10.05±8.61)%, respectively. The average hottest days and coldest nights in China will increase by (1.78±0.76)℃ and (1.83±0.69)℃, respectively. Warm days will likely increase most significantly on the Tibetan Plateau (17.05±5.16)%, while cool nights decrease most in southern China (-6.08±0.73)%. Extreme precipitation events will intensify, with very wet days near the Tibetan Plateau increasing by more than 20%. Meanwhile, the consecutive dry days will decrease in northern China but increase in the southern regions. Compared to non-carbon neutrality scenarios like SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the achievement of dual carbon goals can help mitigate future extreme climate change in China. It helps control extreme temperature and precipitation increases in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau, and reduce consecutive dry days in southern China. Therefore, to alleviate the exacerbation of regional climate change in China in the future, it is crucial to control CO2 emissions more rationally to achieve "dual carbon" goals.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    WANG Runyu, HUANG Tao, LING Zaili, REN Ji, WEI Zijian, SONG Shijie, MA Jianmin
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 85-97. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00250
    Abstract (101) PDF (59)   Knowledge map   Save
    With the deepening of globalization and the accelerated transfer of international supply chains, developing countries, such as China, have become global manufacturing centers, which has significant impact on global distribution of CO2 emissions. In the present study, we quantitatively estimate CO2 emissions transfer embodied in trade for 141 countries and regions in 2004 and 2014 and the impact on CO2 emissions in China by using the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. Results show that CO2 emissions embodied in global dramatically increased during 2004—2014 due to further strengthening of trade activities among the countries. In 2014, CO2 emissions embodied in global trade was 4244 million tons, accounting for approximately onequarter of the total global emissions. As the center of CO2 emissions transfer embodied in trade, the net transfer of CO2 emissions embodied in export in China increased from 1200 million tones to 1462 millions in 2014, accounting for 28% and 34% of global carbon transfers. In China, CO2 emissions embodied in the export sector have concentrated in energy-intensive and carbonintensive industries, while those embodied in the import sector concentrated in low-energy-consuming industries such as services and light industry. Thus, in the context of the global supply chain transfer and China's "dual carbon" goals, to reduce CO2 emissions, China should actively advocate to establish a global carbon emission accounting framework based on the production-consumption joint responsibility, to ensure fair and reasonable allocation of emission rights. At the same time, China should optimize the export trade structure, accelerate transformation of low-carbon economy, and improve energy efficiency. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation, establish effective communication and collaboration platforms, and make positive contributions to global CO2 emissions reduction and climate governance.
  • Exclusive: Climate Change and Low-carbon Development of Green Energy
    OUYANG Huiling, TANG Xu, ZHANG Renhe
    Science & Technology Review. 2024, 42(19): 98-104. https://doi.org/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.02.00235
    Human-induced global climate change is one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century and addressing climate change has become an international consensus. Health is the basic aspiration of people for a better life, as well as a driving force of economic development and social progress. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change have already and will continue to threaten human survival and health. Therefore, reducing the loss of lives and health risks should be a long-term goal of climate governance. This paper analyzes the health risks associated with extreme weather events, air pollution, and the energy transition process in the context of climate change. It is imperative to establish and implement a health-centered collaborative governance strategy in response to climate change and societal needs, which encompasses a collaborative effort on emission reduction, pollution control, adaptation, and resilience building.