. 2010, 28(04): 110-117.
Under the background of the global climate change, the mean temperature continues to rise in China during the last 50 years, with annual mean surface air temperature being increased by 1.1℃, higher than the global temperature increase; the precipitation trends are not obvious, with large interdecadal fluctuations and significant regional differences; the number of extreme weather and climate events grows. In the future climate change scenarios, the warming amplitude is higher in the northern area than in the southern area, the most obvious warming occurs over Tibetan Plateau, the annual precipitation increases significantly in the north, northwest and north-east of China, with a small increase in the Yangtze River and its southern region. The growth period of rice, maize and wheat will be shortened by climate warming, with decreased yield; climate warming is beneficial to cotton production, and can improve yield and quality of cotton in the north; the triple cropping area will increase by about 22.4%, one-harvest area will shrink by about 23.1%, the crop planting structure and layout in crop varieties will change; the situation of the main crop pests and diseases tends to be worse; climate warming is beneficial to the livestock growth in temperate and boreal regions, but detrimental to the livestock growth and forage in tropical and subtropical regions; there will be reductions to varying degrees of productions of four major economic species and fish catches in China's four sea areas; with the climate warming, various types of natural vegetation in China will move northward, the scope of desertification hazard will expand, soil fertility will decline and the agricultural irrigation water requirement will increase, the conflicts between supply and demand of agricultural water resources will be intensified. China's strategy will include two aspects, mitigation and adaptation, and both should be taken enough attention.
