10 July 2004, Volume 22 Issue 0407

    

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气候变化及应对策略
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  CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCES INTO THE 21st CENTURY: FACTS, IMPACT AND STRATEGIES ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE

  QIN Da-he

  . 2004, 22(0407): 4-7.

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  The Earth’s climate system has been experiencing a significant change characterized by global warming in the past century. The trend of climate change over China is approximately consistent with that of the globe. The climate warming in recent 50 years is mainly due to the enhanced green-house effects produced by green-house gases emission into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuels burning. Current modeling projections indicate that the climate of China and the globe will continue to be warmer in the coming 50 to 100 years. At the present, the world is negotiating the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on how to mitigate the climate warming and control the emission of green house gases. Firstly,IPCC TAR and the state of the art scientific advances are referred to present the facts of climate change and future possible change. The responses of Cryosphere to climate change are summarized in the second section. The third section addresses the impact of climate change on ecosystem and socio-economy and the challenges and opportunities to China derived from climate change are analyzed in the fourth section, followed by the strategies addressing climate change.
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  WILL THE GLOBAL WARMING BRING CHILLING

  WANG Shao-wu;LUO Yong;ZHAO Zong-ci;DONG Wen-jie

  . 2004, 22(0407): 8-10.

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  An analysis on the Report of OSD (Office of Security Department) is made. The report suggests that gradual global warming will bring chilling. It is indicated that the chilling had occurred many times in the past, for the warming melt ice cover, modulated the thermohaline circulation, and finally influenced on the global climate. However, it is premature to say that a new phase of chilling is coming, because no strong precursor has been found. Therefore, in the near future occurrence of the scenario suggests in the report is almost impossible. But it is difficult to exclude the possibility of occurrence of a chilling in some whatlonger time, so it is necessary to increase the research on the abrupt climate change.
论文
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  CLIMATE CHANGE AND METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS

  ZHAI Pan-mao

  . 2004, 22(0407): 11-14.

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  Based on review of research results in changes in climate extremes under the background of global warming in the world, this paper summarizes climate change in China’s major meteorological disasters which are closely related to climate extremes. It is indicated that in eastern Northeast China, North China, eastern Northwest China, precipitation totals and frequency have decreased at the same time, and drought has become more serious. In the Yangtze River valley, however, flood opportunities have increased due to the increase of intense precipitation events. One of the most significant changes in disasters is due to reduction of frost days. Though frequency in duststorms in China shows a decrease trend, it has increased recently mainly due to the impact of persistent drought in northern China since 1998.
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  OBSERVED AND PROJ ECTED CLIMATE CHANGES

  REN Guoyu;XU Ying

  . 2004, 22(0407): 15-16.

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  Global climate is experiencing an obvious warming.This paper summarizes the main findings of climate change researches conducted globally,with an emphasis of results of the recent studies done in China.A more evident change in climate has been found in the country for both the past and the future.If the change in the past50years could be attributed to the increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration,and if the projected changes for the coming decades will come to be true,the impacts of the anthropogenic climate change will be very significant,and they have to be considered more seriously.
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  DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTION SYSTEM IN CHINA

  ZHANG Pei-qun;LI Qing-quan;WANG Lan-ning;LIU Yi-min;SHI Xue-li;WU Tong-wen

  . 2004, 22(0407): 17-21.

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  Dynamical climate model is a dominating tool for climate prediction in the world at present.After more than8year’s researching and developing,the first generation of dynamical climate model prediction operation system has been established in National Climate Center(NCC),Chinese Meteorological Administration.And on the basis of this system,a series of short term climate prediction produced by dynamical climate model at timescale of monthly,seasonal and interannual has been launched into operation.It is shown by the results from20-year-hindcasting experiments and experimental routine operation of short term climate prediction since last spring that this system has the reasonable capability of seasonal prediction in East Asia and its products has been becoming an important reference in the NCC’ operation of short term climate prediction.
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  THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL FEATURES OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD DISASTERS IN THE PAST 50 YEARSAND MONITORING AND WARNING SERVICES IN CHINA

  ZHANG Qiang;GAO Ge

  . 2004, 22(0407): 21-24.

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  In the context of statistic data of drought and flood disasters in the past 50 years, the spatial and temporal features of drought and flood disasters and their changing tendencies were analyzed. The result shows in the past 50 years , particularly starting from 1980s. the precipitation has been increasing in the east of China while the precipitation has been decreasing in the north of China. When the frequency of drought increased, the flood also increased. The crop areas stricken and affected by drought and flood increased clearly and economic losses became huger and huger. In order to prevent and mitigate disasters and provide timely drought and flood monitoring information to government and users, National Climate Center has been developing the daily drought and flood monitoring and warning system since 1995.The operational system has set up the drought monitoring and warning index, based on the meteorological observation data from 600 stations in China and forecast data with 7 days in advance. Based on the index and the soil moisture observed by agricultural and meteorological stations and drought result from satellite remote sensing into account, the Monitoring Bulletin of Drought and Flood in China are released for relative departments of the government and the public.
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  CHARACTERISTICS OF EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON IN 2003

  ZHU Yan-feng;ZHAI Pan-mao;ZHANG Xiuzhi

  . 2004, 22(0407): 25-28.

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  Characteristics of East Asian Monsoon and rainfall over eastern China in 2003 summer and their relationship had been discussed based on NMC (National Meteorological Center) reanalysis data and stations precipitation in 2003. Results showed that: 1) The southwest monsoon entered the South SCS (South China Sea) on the fifth pentad of May and it onset over all the SCS was on the first pentad of June 2003, which was later than normal year. Intensity of SCS summer monsoon was also weaker than normal. 2) Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) was stronger than normal and extended westward remarkably in 2003 summer. Ridge of subtropical high steadily located nearby 25oN and extended westward during the period from the last dekad of June to middle dekad of July, leading to serious droughts in the South China. Southerly transported moisture from SCS to the Huaihe basin was main sources of the precipitation over this region while summer monsoon reached areas between the Yangtze and the Huaihe rivers.
数字矿山
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  DIGITAL MINE AND THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF MINES IN CHINA

  WU Li-xin;ZHU Wang-xi;ZHANG Rui-xin

  . 2004, 22(0407): 29-31.

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  The rapid development of spatial information technology, digital information technology, automation technology and intelligence technology has brought both chances and challenges for traditional mines. In recent years, the developed mining countries have applied information technology to reconstruct and promote their traditional mines. This work not only changed the traditional mining techniques and organization modes,but also greatly improved the production efficiency and safety level. Based on the achievements of the 86th Youth Scientists Forum of China Association of Science & Technology, which took digital mine as its topic, this paper introduces the concept and the framework of digital mine, the core theories and the technologies of digital mine, and the strategies and schemes for the implementation of digital mine. It is hoped that the study and construction of digital mine in China can be promoted and developed.
论文
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  MINING CAD TECHNOLOGY IN THE 21st CENTURY: VISUALIZATION, INTEGRATION AND INTELLIGENT

  CHEN Jian-hong;ZHOU Ke-pin;GU De-sheng

  . 2004, 22(0407): 32-34.

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  This paper describes the developing tend of CAD from market and technology in the new century,and summarizes the current research situation of mining CAD technology. This paper points out some problems which exists in Chinese Mining CAD software developing and gives some suggestions. Based on brief introduction about the Science Computing Visualization, the authors propose the idea of developing the visualization integration mining CAD system ,and developing tend of visualization integration and intelligent is analyzed. Then the authors give several key technologies in the field of computer aided mining design, which need to be solved. Finally, an example of mining CAD system and software development experience is given.
数字矿山
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  INFORMATION RESOURCE PLAN OF DIGITAL MINE

  ZHANG Jin

  . 2004, 22(0407): 35-36.

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  This paper mainly focuses on the intension and extension and the information resource plan of digital mine. The necessity, methods and application of making digital mine are concluded based on information resource plan of digital mine. The author suggests that the unified information model of mine can be used for describing the static and dynamic information of mine. Finally, the cmXML or cXMML standard system of Chinese mine should be established based on XML and GML.
高技术
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  DOMINANT BATTLESPACE AWARENESS & KNOWLEDGE:THE APPROACH TO CYBERSPACE SITUATION AWARENESS

  SHANG Ya-ling;HU Chang-zhen

  . 2004, 22(0407): 37-38.

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  Building and maintaining the information superiority is the basis of the principle of "active defense,integrated guarding " in the cyberspace. A model, the composing factors and managing methods on the network information assurance system are brought forward in the paper. According to IPIB, a new approach to build the cyberspace situational awareness is discussed by the principle and means of the DBA/DBK.
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  MICRO-DESIGN——THE APPLICATION OF INDUSTRIAL DESIGN IN THE NEW DOMAIN

  JIANG Bing;CHENG Xu-feng;GUO Hui

  . 2004, 22(0407): 39-41.

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  Based on application and innovation, industrial design encircles the focus of improving people’s life quality and discovers new design to influence human’s life style. This thesis intends to discuss the impacts and changes of industrial design when micro-technology occurs and forecasts the new domain of industrial design based on the micro-technology. This paper puts forward some opinions on these issues, such as what is micro-design, what designers could do and how they should do, etc.
论文
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  THE URBANIZATION PATTERN OF CHINA IN THE 21st CENTURY

  YAO Shi-mou;WANG Cheng-xin;XIE Xiao-nan;

  . 2004, 22(0407): 42-45.

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  It is very important to choose a scientific urbanization pattern to exert the function of cities. Since 1800, the pattern of the world urbanization has transformed from "extensive" to "intensive". However, since 1949 an extensive pattern has been taking in China, and there have been many problems in the urbanization process of our country. Today, sustainable development and the knowledge economy are the themes of the cities, so it is inevitable to change China’s urbanization pattern. Based on alayzing the law of inter-conversion between quality and quantity, the article points out that the urbanization of China should be focused not only on quality but also on quantity. The urbanization pattern of the high quality and multiform is an inevitable choice of China.
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  STUDY ON ESTABLISHING ENGINEERING ACCREDITATION SYSTEM IN CHINA

  ZHANG Zhi-ying;ZHANG Yan-tong

  . 2004, 22(0407): 46-48.

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  Engineering accreditation system is currently a kind of internationally advanced management system for the professional certification. So far, professional certification system has not been established in China. The purpose of the discussion is to explore some useful theories for establishing an engineering accreditation system with Chinese characteristics.
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  HOW TO ORGANIZE AND GENERATE NEWS TOPICS WITH GREAT EFFICIENCY

  TAN Hao;JIA Zi-yan;SHI Zhong-zhi

  . 2004, 22(0407): 48-51.

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  In this thesis, the author uses the text-mining method of organizing all news formats datums to organize and generate special news topics. To solve the difficulties of manually categorizing news documents, the topic generation is related to the news event probing and tracking. Deeper researches on how to organize and manage generated news events, the detailed procedure of obtaining special events as well as the retrieval of news events have been done in this thesis.With this method , we can improve system efficiency and accuracy of organizing news topics.
科研管理
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  AN ANALYSIS ON THE MODELS FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF CREDIT RISKS

  YANG Yun-shi;Xu Cong-wei

  . 2004, 22(0407): 51-53.

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  Various credit risk assessment approaches and models have been put forward in the recent years. The paper has introduced the most famous models including CreditMetricsTM, CreditRisk+, KMV and CreditPortfolio View, and analyzed the differences,advantages and disadvantages among them. These models, with their unique framework and reasoning clues, will have reference values to the country’s credit risk management of financial institutions.
论文
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  OUTLIER MANAGEMENT OF INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS

  YAO Wei-xin;HUANG Li-hua

  . 2004, 22(0407): 54-56.

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  Data is one of critical resources in the information era. Intelligent data analysis is being challenged by outlier though it can mine valuable information from data.This paper proposes a management method of the outliers which includes the distinction of different outliers, identification of the outliers containing knowledge, reduction of noise the outliers from source.It also points out some measures necessary to be taken in the research of outlier.
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  THE BASIC CONSTRUCTION OF RURAL LAND FINANCE SYSTEM IN CHINA

  LI Ai-xi;LUO Jian-chao

  . 2004, 22(0407): 56-58.

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  The essay puts forward the idea that the basic construction of rural land finance system should be established in China according to the limitation in current rural land finance system: to innovate the rural management method, to make sure the ownership of the land and stabilize the land contract right, to accelerate the land use reasonably and perfect the land property regulations; to take some measures such as avoiding risk, controlling loss and imputing to others, to keep away the rural land finance risk; to build up a scientific evaluating system, to improve the employees’ quality, to deal exactly with the government, evaluation association,institution and appraisers so as to inspire the fair competition and allow foreign institutions to enter China.
农业
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  FINANCIAL BOTTLENECK OF PEASANT HOUSEHOLD IN THE MODEL OF “COMPANY+PEASANT HOUSEHOLD”:A CASE STUDY ON QIANXIAN COUNTY

  LIU Jun-yan;HUO Xue-xi;LIU Jun-cang

  . 2004, 22(0407): 59-61.

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  Since 1990 the model of “company+peasant household” has been greatly developed and has made farmers richer. Based on analyzing the model of “company+peasant household” in Qianxian County, the authors suggest that famers who have followed or will follow this model are facing serious financial problems. In order to enlarge farmer’s financial channels, the following measures should be taken: developing industrial investment funds, propelling company into financial market, building up the model of “company+peasant household+bank”,etc,.
论文
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  ON THE ORGANIZED PRODUCE AND SALE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

  CUI Bin

  . 2004, 22(0407): 62-64.

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  The drastic competition in the agricultural products market requires an integration in the produce and sale chain of agricultural products chain, the integration of agricultural products chain is an organized process. This article has discussed the necessity of the organized produce and sale of agricultural products, its difference from agricultural industrialization, and ways to realize the organized produce and sale of agricultural products.