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   Science & Technology Review
2019, Vol.37, No. 20
28 October 2019

Foreword
Columns
Papers
Think Tank
Review
Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction
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Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 0-0.
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Abstract ( 117 )
Foreword

Strengthening the development of application software for high performance science and engineering calculation

CHEN Zhiming
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 1-1.
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Abstract ( 125 )
Think Tank

Strategic thinking about China's bioenergy development

SHI Yuanchun, CHENG Xu, ZHU Wanbin
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 6-11. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.001
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Abstract ( 91 )
According to the International Energy Agency's Report, the Renewable Energy 2018, it is indicated in the first time that the bioenergy is an overlooked giant in the renewable energy field, and it is predicted that in the incoming 5 years, the bioenergy application in the transport and heat areas will lead the global renewable energies. This paper reviews the development of China's bioenergy in recent years, makes some suggestions about the re-orientation, the strategic significance, the way to explore the second generation feedstock of the bioenergy and to raise the challenge level of the bioenergy industry, as well as the strategy of constructing state's bio-oilfield and bionatural gas field.
Exclusive: Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction

Influence of climate change on urban constructions in Xiong'an New Area and countermeasures

AI Wanxiu, XIAO Chan, ZENG Hongling, WANG Ling, XIAO Fengjin
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 12-18. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.002
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Abstract ( 121 )
Based on the meteorological data in China in the last 50 years (including the complete data for Xiong'an New Area since 1974), this paper studies and analyzes the climate change and the climate ecological characteristics in China, especially, in Xiong'an in recent decades. Xiong'an is in the zone of the warm temperate semi-humid monsoon climate, with a climate background similar to that of Beijing and Tianjin. In recent decades, temperature, precipitation and other meteorological elements take an obvious change trend but with a weak amplitude, the annual average temperature is increased by 0.2℃ per decade, and the number of hot days is increased by 0.8 days per decade, the number of heavy rain days shows a trend of decrease, the change ranges of elements are all lower than those in China as a whole and in the surrounding cities, as the results of the effects of climate change on Xiong'an. The number of extreme weather events is also increased, such as the heavy rainfall return period is shortened, the number of extreme strong rainfalls is increased obviously and so on. This is as shown in the IPCC's report, and the trend in most regions in China. Based on the analysis of the disaster historical data and the climate model prediction, it is pointed out that under the background of the global warming, Xiong'an will face increasing meteorological disasters and climate risks caused by the climate change in its development, and some suggestions are made.

Multi-factor prediction of spring dust weather frequency in northern China

YANG Mingzhu, ZHU Xiaying, AI Wanxiu, SONG Wenling
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 19-29. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.003
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Abstract ( 90 )
The evolution characteristics of the spring sand-dust weather frequency (SDWF) in northern China and its associated atmospheric circulations are analyzed. The signals for the prediction of the SDWF are explored by using the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration in the previous autumn as the external forcing factors. Besides, the influence of the rainfall over the dust-storm source regions in the previous summer is also studied. A multi-factor prediction model for the SDWF in northern China is established and applied in the operational forecasting in the National Climate Center of China. The results show that this model performs best for North China and fairly well for Northwest China by involving the precipitation in the previous autumn.

A study of early warning technique of hazard degree from freezing processes in southern road traffic

YANG Jing, LIU Yanxiang, GAO Jingjing, LI Wanyu, HAO Shuhui, LI Aixun, PAN Jinjun
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 30-39. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.004
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Abstract ( 88 )
With the definition of the freezing process under the influence of the road traffic, an early warning model is built based on the gray correlation method for monitoring the hazard from the freezing processes in the road traffic in the south area. For each process, the four indexes, including the average daily precipitation and air temperature, the overall rainy days and frozen days, contain the metric to quantify its hazard degree. With the analysis of the meteorological factors and the road-blocking disaster of the freezing process in south China during January 21-25, 2016, it is concluded that the extremely high risk area (Grade 5) and the road block area have a very good coincidence relationship, and as the level of the hazard degree rises, the ratio of the hit road block rises accordingly. The relationship is applicable for the state highways, the national highways and the provincial highways, while the peak value of the ratio is at the high hazard degree for the state highways but it is at a lower hazard degree for the provincial highways. These characteristics show that the early warning model proposed in this paper not only gives a good indication, but also discriminates the roads of different grades, to provide a sound reference for the traffic risk control.

Analysis of seasonal drought variations in Zhangjiakou since 1965

HU Xue, MA Guang, LI Chunqiang, CHE Shaojing, KANG Xiyan, LIU Xingyan
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 40-48. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.005
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Abstract ( 86 )
Drought hazards have a great adverse effect on the agricultural production in Zhangjiakou. Based on the meteorological data of 14 weather stations from 1965 to 2018, the temporal-spatial characteristics of the seasonal drought variations in Zhangjiakou region are analyzed by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the statistic methods. It is shown that the summer drought sees a significant increasing trend, with a long time duration and in a large space, especially after the 1990s. But the spring and autumn drought sees a decreasing trend, and becomes weak in the 21st century. And the winter drought sees no significant variation. It is imperative to strengthen the management for the summer drought.

Study of road surface temperature by using the land surface temperature retrieval products from meteorological satellite data

FENG Lei, ZHANG Kaiyi, GAO Jingjing, DAI Zhixiu
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 49-64. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.006
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Abstract ( 97 )
The applicability of the land surface temperature retrieval products in the road surface temperature monitored for typical highway sections is studied by using the FY-2G and Himawari-8 products. It is suggested that the satellite land surface temperature retrieval products can reflect the diurnal cycle and the daily change of the road surface temperature well, with a good relationship between the two. According to the high correlation between the road surface temperature and the satellite retrieval product, a revised model is established by using the linear regression method. The rolling revised satellite land surface temperature retrieval products give results much closer to the road surface temperature observations than the original results. The absolute deviation in summer is reduced to 2.57℃ from 6.98℃, and the absolute deviation in winter is reduced to 1.62℃ from 3.84℃.

Applicability of forest fire danger weather index model based on modified Brown-Davis method

LIANG Li, YANG Xiaodan, WANG Chengxin, YUAN Yuan, ZHANG Yingnan, ZHANG Yujie
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 65-75. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.007
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Abstract ( 93 )
Based on the observations of the national principal stations, the basic stations and the ordinary stations from 2005 to 2014 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, a forest fire danger weather index model is built with the modified Brown-Davis method and the forest fire danger weather grade is established. They are verified by the corresponding daily frequency statistics of the forest and shrub fires, provided by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA), combined with the case study and it is shown that the modified forest fire danger weather index is indicative for its values of five regions are higher in spring and autumn, as is consistent with the major fire prevention season set by the NFGA. In the three key forest fire-prevention regions of the meteorological service, namely, the northeast, the south and the southwest forest regions, the modified forest fire weather index has a high correlation with the forest fire frequency. The applied analysis of the forest fire in Inner Mongolia province in 2017 shows a high applicability of the index model.

Principle of the US national fire danger rating system and its application prospect

HAN Yanhong, MIAO Lei, ZHAO Luqiang, YANG Xiaodan, WU Hao
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 76-83. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.008
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Abstract ( 63 )
Absorbing the advanced experience of forest fire warning and control in the world, establishing the fire risk rating system based on combustion mechanism can further improve the comprehensive ability of forest fire prevention and control in China and reduce the loss of forest resources. Based on National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the paper introduces the development history, technical method and system structure, argues that NFDRS is a physical model based on combustion mechanism and experiments, considers the contribution of different fuels to fire, calculates and provides comprehensive indexes to facilitate the planning of fire control activities. The structure and method of NFDRS are applicable to China with complex climate and diverse vegetation types. Therefore, the paper discusses the key technologies in the system, such as the calculation of moisture content of combustible and the calculation of fire protection index. By considering the current situation of forest fire prevention in China, the paper proposes the introduction of NFDRS into forest fire management and fire control strategy in China in order to provide references for establishing national fire danger system in China.
Review

Research progress on fatigue life of suspension wires in catenary of high-speed railway

HE Fan, SUN Juan, CHEN Liming
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 84-93. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.009
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Abstract ( 62 )
Due to the increased train speed, the vibration amplitude of the suspension wires in the catenary increases, with a bad effect on the safe driving of the train. The fatigue life of the suspension wires is closely related to the safe driving of the train. In this paper, the performance of the catenary suspension wires with respect to the material fatigue and the pantographcatenary relationship is analyzed, and the existing problems of the catenary component deformation, the pantograph-catenary aerodynamics and the research methods for the study of the fatigue performance of the catenary suspension wires are pointed out, and the future research and development trends in the aspects of the two-way fluid-solid interaction between the catenary and the environmental wind field, the dimensions of the measured data of the catenary are highlighted.
Papers

The simulation of particle mass concentration distribution in the vehicle operation room and the parameter optimization

YU Huiping, CAI Anwen, PI Bensong, LONG Lianchun, LI Zhaohui
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (20): 94-100. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.20.010
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Abstract ( 97 )
In order to effectively reduce the mass concentration of the particles and improve the air cleanliness level in the operating clean room in the expandable shelter vehicle, the diffusion particles in an non-unidirectional flow clean operating room are analyzed. The minimum mass concentration of the particles in the working plane is set as the goal, and the optimization model is established with the average wind speed of the working plane, as the constraint condition. The sequential response surface method is used to optimize the velocity and the angle of supplying the air. It is shown that when the outlet of the operating room is arranged symmetrically on the long side wall, the flow of the indoor air could be well activated to reduce the mass concentration of the particle. In the non-unidirectional flow operating room, the mass concentration of the particles is mainly affected by the flow of the air. When the dominant diffusion direction of the particles is changed to the downwind, the mass concentration of the particles in the main flow area is relatively low and the mass concentration of the particles in the surrounding area, around the area of the medical staff and the wall of the operating room, may be larger. With the velocity and the angle of supplying the air optimized by the response surface method, the mass concentration of the particles could be reduced by 78.19% to make the air quality of the operating room reach the clean standard. Also, this optimized method helps the ventilation design of the vehicle operating room.

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