WANG Yanjun, LIU Qingying, SI Lili, PENG Xiangyu, JIANG Tong
Projection of population structure in the Xiong'an New Area is great significant for the regional high-quality development. Based on the sixth population census and the Baoding Economic Statistical Yearbooks, the populationdevelopment-environment model is used to project population structure from 2020 to 2035 in the Xiong'an New Area. The policy-oriented population migration plan of the Xiong'an New Area is set by referring to the migration population patterns of the Shanghai Pudong New Area and the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. The characteristics of the population structure by age, gender and education level were compared between the policy-oriented migration plans and natural migration plan following its historical trend. The research conclusions are as follows:(1) Aging trend of the population has appeared in the Xiong'an New Area. At period 2020-2035, the degree of aging will increase under the natural migration mode. In contrast, aging trend will be alleviated under the policy-oriented migration mode in which the pressure on the labor force might be reduced but the birthrate might be in a low status. (2) The total gender ratio is projected to show a downward trend under both migration modes. Although the gender structure might be improved, the gender ratio will still be slightly higher. (3) Under the natural migration mode, the average length of education will rise from 9 years in 2020 to about 10 years in 2035, which means secondary education will still dominate the population educational structure. Under the policy-oriented migration mode, the average length of education will increase from 9 years to 13.5 years, and the dominant educational level will shift from secondary education to university education. (4) To promote high-quality development in the Xiong'an New Area, some major socio-economic aspects need to be improved including optimization of the pension insurance system and the fertility policy, increasing in the property income of the labor force, strengthening the laws and regulations construction to enhance the awareness of the gender equality, and improvement of infrastructure construction and fostering of innovative talents.