FANG Chaoxiong, HU Zhenda, CHEN Hanshi, ZHANG Linyao, TU Xiazhe, LIU Yupeng, CHEN Weiqiang
Transition to "cleaner" electricity is crucial to achieving the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China and it depends on structure optimization. In this study, a multi-objective model is established to optimize electricity structure in Fujian province under three carbon sink scenarios in 2060. The results show that: (1) Currently, the thermal power still dominates the electricity generation, the hydropower has peaked, the nuclear power is increasing, and the other sources (e. g., wind, solar, biomass) begin to grow. (2) Under the optimal carbon emission scenario, Fujian province has to increase its installed capacity of electric power to 255 million kilowatts, rapidly develop renewable energy, and widely apply energy storage batteries in 2060. (3) Under the optimal power structure scenario, Fujian province would need to increase its installed capacity of electric power to 180 million kilowatts and form a balanced source of electricity. (4) Under the optimal power structure stability scenario, the installed capacity of electric power merely has to reach 205.5 million kilowatts, but the costs on construction and upgrading of the Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology would be very high. In summary, the coverage of CCUS higher than 82% and the annual natural carbon sink "quota" of electricity sector exceeding 26.2 million tons are two thresholds for Fujian province to form a renewable and "clean" electricity and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060.
