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   Science & Technology Review
2019, Vol.37, No. 19
13 October 2019

Reviews

Foreword
Science and Technology Fund
Papers
Think Tank
Exclusive: Technology Assessment
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Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 0-0.
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Abstract ( 110 )
Foreword

Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 1-1.
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Abstract ( 40 )
Think Tank

Risks and countermeasures of intellectual property with talent flow in research institutions under new situation

GAI Minqiang, CUI Wangcheng, GE Fei
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 6-11. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.001
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Abstract ( 65 )
Recently, a series of national reform policies have been issued intensively. People from the top of the country to the local government are all requiring to break the institutional obstacle of talent flow to motivate researchers'entrepreneurship. Considering these new circumstances, higher requirements should be put forward for the intellectual property management of research institutions. Research institutions need to take measures to control intellectual property risks due to talent flow and to strengthen such as technical secrets management, intellectual property policy incentives, development of e-Science, personnel background checks and intellectual property training. The aforementioned countermeasures can improve the positive interaction between intellectual property protection of research institutions and talent flow.
Exclusive: Technology Assessment

Study of science and technology indicators system and evaluation

WU Yu, LI Muzhi, LI Yantong
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 12-18. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.002
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Abstract ( 32 )
There is a long history of evaluation indicator system and research about input-output of national science and technology activities, some representational research results with important influence have been achieved. In this paper, the main international scientific and technological indicators are analyzed, the characteristics are summarized and the deficiencies are discussed. Based on the existing scientific and technological indicator research framework of our country, some suggestions focusing on indicator system design, data analysis and international cooperation are proposed according to the strategic target of being in the forefront of innovative countries and building a powerful country in science and technology.

Review on characterization and foresight methods of disruptive technology

ZHANG Shouming, ZHANG Bin, ZHANG Bifeng, LIU Yi
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 19-25. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.003
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Abstract ( 42 )
Disruptive technologies applied to military have changed the form of wars and determined who will win, while to the national economy they have changed the way of lives and decided the future of the world. This paper reviews the development and characteristics of disruptive technologies, and points out that the biggest challenge facing disruptive technology development is to identify the right one. Anther difficulty is that technological breakthroughs usually need long-term accumulation and systematic promotion. By summarizing the foresight methods of disruptive technologies, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to develop disruptive technologies, such as strengthening technology foresight, original innovation, cultivation and management.

Establishment and improvement of early warning mechanism of science and technology security

LI Lin, LIAO Jinping, ZHANG Xuangong
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 26-32. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.004
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Abstract ( 25 )
Starting from the essential connotation of technology security early warning, we argue that science and technology security early warning' mechanism is real need to ensure technology industry safety, to improve science and technology output efficiency, and to stimulate scientific and technological innovation ability. Establishing science and technology security's mechanism should follow the principle of purposive, systematicand scientific. Then, we explore the methods and approaches to establish the early-warning mechanism of science and technology security from five aspects, including target determination, information collection, analysis and identification, evaluation and feedback, and performance evaluation. Finally, we present countermeasures and suggestions for establishment of science and technology security's mechanism in terms of organizational mechanism, operation mechanism and police-regulation.

Industrial classification from a techno-economic security perspective

LIU Zhipeng, DAI Tao, MENG Xiangcui, LI Yijie
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 33-40. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.005
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Abstract ( 11 )
Core technologies subject to foreign countries have become the top priority of China's economic security. The issue of techno-economic security needs urgent attention. This study draws on the concepts of "sensitivity" and "vulnerability" from interdependence theory, and proposes four categories of attributes and corresponding indicators of technological sensitivity, economic sensitivity, technological vulnerability and economic vulnerability for China's industrial sectors based on the perspective of techno-economic security. Factors of sensitivity and vulnerability are extracted using the factor analysis method and 38 industrial sectors are divided into four categories:High sensitivity and high vulnerability, high sensitivity and low vulnerability, low sensitivity and high vulnerability, low sensitivity and low vulnerability. This classification can provide a basis for conducting classified monitoring and evaluation of the techno-economic security status of various industries as well as for better safeguarding national economic security.

Evaluation method of international competitiveness for disruptive technology

MENG Xiangcui, DAI Tao, LIU Zhipeng, LI Yijie
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 41-49. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.006
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Abstract ( 23 )
Disruptive technologies of a country, especially its competitiveness level compared to other countries, will affect the country's future competitiveness and economic security. In this study, we present the competitiveness evaluation model and method for disruptive technology from three aspects, i.e., "technology-market-environment" using the strategic niche management (SNM) theory and the characteristics of disruptive technology. Furthermore, we take the artificial intelligence (AI) technology as an example, and analyze each country's competitiveness of China, United States, France, Germany, Britain and Japan.

Practice and challenge of international research evaluation: A case study of research evaluation of CAS Centers for Excellence

XU Fang, LI Bi, CUI Shengxian, ZHOU Changhai, LI Xiaoxuan
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 50-57. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.007
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Abstract ( 21 )
Today's orientation of science and technology evaluation in China has changed to pursuing excellence and encouraging science and technology to promote development. One of the policies is to encourage international peer review in science and technology evaluation. However the theoretical and methodological research on international peer review is still in its infancy. Therefore, this paper firstly proposes a few key questions about international peer review, and then studies a case of research evaluation of CAS Centers for Excellence to answer these questions. Further, this paper puts forward some thoughts and prospects for China's future international evaluation.
Reviews

Challenges and technical prospects of dry-hot rock drilling and completion

WANG Zhigang, HU Zhixing, LI Kuan, LI Xinmiao
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 58-65. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.008
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Abstract ( 23 )
Dry hot rock, as a clean, environment-friendly and recyclable renewable energy, will be the most environmentfriendly clean energy in the future. Dry heat rock engineering projects in the United States, Britain, Japan, France, Australia and China are introduced. According to the characteristics of dry-hot rock mass, technical problems existing in dry-hot rock drilling and completion engineering are analyzed, including low drilling efficiency, high formation temperature, poor wellbore stability, and serious leakage. In view of the aforementioned technical problems, the future developments of key technologies such as efficient rock breaking tools, drilling fluid technology, high temperature cementing technology, pressure control drilling technology, expansion casing technology, directional well technology and liquid nitrogen drilling in dry and hot rock are prospected and analyzed.
Papers

On the development management model of shale gas in China

HUANG Weihe, LIU Hai
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 66-73. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.009
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Abstract ( 35 )
The shale gas efficient development model is summarized as "integrated management + horizontal well platform + super-large fracturing + factory operation" in North America, in which the integrated management is a combination of revolutionary and cost-effective management measures. At present, there is still no integrated management model that conforms to the characteristics of Chinese shale gas development. Successful experiences of development in North America and China are analyzed in this article. In terms of transaction cost theory, property rights theory and economic mechanism design theory of the new institutional economics, the characteristics of China's shale gas development are characterized by high asset specificity, high uncertainty, and high transaction frequency. The development direction of shale gas development and management in China should be mixed ownership and in the form of enterprise entity. China should set up a number of shale gas development groups constituted by "large oil and gas resources exploration enterprises + large oil and gas technical service enterprises + local government representative enterprises", and the constitution model can be alliance, related party transactions and joint-stock enterprises. Then a set of long-term management mechanisms for China's shale gas development with effective use of information, reasonable resource allocation, and compatible incentives methods can be established. Management innovation driven technological innovation should be the fundamental way to solve many problems in China's shale gas development.

Multiple linear frequency modulation signal extraction in highly noisy environment using discrete prolate spheroidal sequence

HOU Changman, YU Biao, CHEN Yuanhang
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 74-79. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.010
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Abstract ( 29 )
With the continuous development of countermeasure and anti-countermeasure technology as well as the increasing application of low intercept signals, traditional signal extraction methods are no longer to satisfy user's needs for extraction of low intercept signal waveforms. In this paper, based on the discrete prolate spheroidal sequence (DPSS), the time-window function is used to analyze multiple linear frequency modulation signals. A method employing horizontal threshold decision probability to capture signal is proposed, and extraction of signal waveform is completed by adaptive binarization and improved Hough transform (HT). Simulation shows that the proposed method is better than the short-time Fourier transform algorithm in terms of noise control and can accurately extract the waveform at low SNR.
Science and Technology Fund

Three Nobel Prize nominated ethnic Chinese scientists in the field of microelectronic devices

QIAN Min
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 80-86. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.011
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Abstract ( 49 )
Microelectronic technology is the cornerstone of modern information society, and microelectronic devices are the key components of microelectronic technology. Three Nobel Prize nominated ethnic Chinese scientists who are still active in microelectronics research and industry are introduced, and their main contributions to and great influence on the microelectronics industry are described. Simon M. Sze is the inventor of non-volatile memory which is the necessary component of electronic information products such as computers and mobile phones; Chih-Tang Sah is the inventor of CMOS technology which is the main technology used in modern integrated circuits; Ching W. Tang is the father of OLED which is the most promising third generation of flat display technology.

Brief history and enlightenment of machine chess: From “Deep Blue” to AlphaZero

XUE Yonghong, WANG Hongpeng
Science & Technology Review. 2019, 37 (19): 87-96. ;  doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2019.19.012
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Abstract ( 51 )
Taking the historical evolution as the main line, this paper combs and summarizes "Deep Blue" and AlphaGo from the aspects of design philosophy and technical features. Relied on human experience of chess, "Deep Blue" achieved transcendence with humans by means of computational power and algorithms. Twenty years later, AlphaGo, although its original version was also successful by using human experience, and its evolution revealed an important fact that human experience has its limitation. AlphaZero, which gives up human experience and adopts machine self-playing experience, convincingly defeated a world champion program in the games of chess and shogi (Japanese chess) as well as Go. It is clear that in chess games, limited by human cognition ability, experience accumulated by human beings for thousands of years is no longer superior to the "experience" formed by machines in a short term. Machines can do better than humans with the help of their own "experience", supported by enormous computing power and ever-improving algorithms. In the future, machines that "give up human experience and rely on their own experience" will likely make breakthroughs in more complex areas.

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